3rd April 2000, ?>?>Manchester
Airport, 3rd April 2000, Manchester Airport, England. My family had just
come over to join me in the UK for a couple of years. It was raining. Not
exactly an unusual occurrence for Manchester. My family whinged, having
just flown in from Sydney, Australia where they had left behind -blue
skies, warm weather and little rain, due to the country being into its 5th
year of drought. Also, not an unusual occurrence.
At about the
same time I started to read the occasional article and hear the odd radio
snippet about global warming. About how the planet was heating up and how
this was going to change the climate and, potentially, cause the
destruction of humanity.
Bah Humbug, thought I. I had heard all
this doom and gloom before.
So I carried on life regardless,
working hard and making money, nodding knowingly when the BBC weathermen
cockily informed us that we had always had a wetter August, or a hotter
November at some time in the past and that the warm and wet weather in the
UK was just normal climatic changes.
Meanwhile, back in Australia,
the cockies observed over their cold beers about how Australia was the
driest continent on the planet and droughts were just part of life's great
cycle.
So life continued on for me and my family in the UK. The
rain kept falling. But it always had done in England. Then we had a bit of
flooding. But this just brought out the 'Battle of britain' spirit in the
Poms who merrily bailed and bagged and brushed the waters out of their
houses.
But. It kept on raining. Twelve months after my family
arrived in that torrential downpour of rain in April 2000 it was announced
that the UK had just experienced the wettest 12 months since records
began, and their records go back to the 17th century. Suddenly the BBC
weathermen weren't quite as cocky in their dismissal of global warming.
Some 6 months after that record year, with rain still continuing,
my family cried 'enough' and we returned to Sydney. To clear blue skies,
near perfect temperatures, icy cold beer and chardonnay, where we forgot
all about global warming for a while.
But then we noticed that the
drought was continuing. It was no longer the 'five year drought'. While we
were away it had become the '10 year drought'. Then the '10 year drought'
became the '100 year drought'. Some even claimed it was the '1,000 year
drought'.
At sometime during these years, my skeptical view of
global warming and climate change started to weaken somewhat. At the very
least, I thought, I should try to find out more about it to see what is
really going on. For, if the predictions of some of the climate change
doomsayers proved even half right, our world and our life would be
changing dramatically.
To cut a long story short, I quickly
discovered three things about global warming:
1. The
'science' of greenhouse gases and global warming had been around for
almost 200 years. French mathematician Joseph Fourier calculating in the
1820s that the planet should be a lot colder than it was and that elements
of the atmosphere must be trapping in the sun's heat. Irish physicist,
John Tyndall identified those gases in the 1870s and, in the 1890s,
Swedish chemist, Svante Arrhenius calculated that a doubling of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere would increase temperatures by some 5 degrees
Celsius.
2. Most of the high profile sceptics were backed
and, in many cases, financed by industries and corporations who had a
vested interest in maintaining the status quo
3. No
scientist seriously questioned the existence and effect of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, nor did they question that we are rapidly
increasing those gases through the burning of coal, natural gas and oil.
It was pretty clear therefore that, all else being equal, our
continued production of greenhouse gases would increase global
temperatures.
I then turned to climate change itself where there
was a different story:
1. Whereas the science of global
warming has been around for a couple of centuries, climate change science
is very recent. Modeling of global climate only being possible with the
development of powerful computers.
2. Where there is
scientific consensus on global warming, there are many different
predictions on the effect of a warming planet on the climate.
3. Although there are differing predictions on climate
change, few of them are beneficial. Principally because the speed of
temperature increase is so rapid that plants, animals and humanity may
struggle to adapt.
My journey terminated when I saw this graph,
from the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Even if
there is only a small percentage chance of temperatures continuing to
track carbon dioxide emissions, the consequences are so profound that it
is a risk we simply cannot take.
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One final clincher was
the realization that temperatures a mere 5 degrees cooler than today put
us into the last ice age.
What ever we may think about the effect of a warming planet on
our climate, a 5 degree increase (as currently predicted if we continue
with 'business as usual') is not something that we can risk
happening.